This note indexes the validation evidence kept in the repository under docs/reports/, and states what each item supports and does not support.
| Topic | Report | Supports |
|---|---|---|
| Calibration of MBCO and model bootstrap | CALIBRATION-2026-10-14.md |
Nominal MBCO coverage off the double null; conservative at it; model bootstrap by design |
| MBCO near the double null | MBCO-NULL-T5-FEASIBILITY-2026-10-14.md |
A calibrated cutoff was not found; the interval stays conservative |
| MBCO optimizer | MBCO-OPTIMIZER-REVIEW-2026-10-14.md |
Exact constraint elimination; optimizers agree to about 1e-11 |
| Coverage claims in the manuscript | PMED-COVERAGE-CLAIMS-CHECK-2026-10-14.md |
Percentile intervals carry Monte Carlo inflation |
| Exact Gaussian reference | I2-EXACT-REFERENCE-2026-10-15.md, AUDIT-exact-gaussian-hopper-2026-10-20.md |
Exact-Gaussian run passed its original six-cell rule |
| Gaussian candidate gate | I6-GATE-2026-10-19.md |
Candidate d failed the frozen coverage-equivalence and width gates |
| Wasserstein repairs | VALIDATE-wasserstein-*-2026-10-20.md |
Boundary correction, selection, joint contrast and observed inference checks |
| Ecosystem compatibility | tasks/plan-mediationverse-compat.md |
Suite passes on medfit 0.3.2 (CRAN) and 0.12.0 (r-universe), 832 tests each; 0.4.1 fixed a missing-value guard that medfit 0.10+ bypassed |
| Boundary point risk | REPORT-boundary-point-risk-2026-10-21.md |
Negative result; see below |
For the binary-outcome Wasserstein proportion mediated, the plug-in bias at an exactly zero path is of order n−1/4. The frozen bias gate (|bias|/SD below .10) cannot be met by any estimator with values in [0, 1] in the zero-direct and weak-direct cells at n = 500. A two-point floor on maximum RMSE is about .09 (direct) and .07 (indirect) at n = 500. Five reference estimators failed the author’s RMSE tolerances. The supported uncertainty statement is the Fieller interval, which passed coverage in every archived binary cell.
It does not show that no estimator could meet the tolerances; the floor lies below them. It does not clear the author’s scientific hold on the boundary diagnostics, and it does not authorize a CRAN or manuscript submission.
Scripts live in scripts/ (check-boundary-*.R, check-gate-*.R, pilot-reference-estimators.R). Set VECLIB_MAXIMUM_THREADS=1 and OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 before running forked simulations, or the workers stall on BLAS threads.